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COVID19 70-80% des morts sont vaccinés

Jordi -

Quelles est la répartition des vaccinés/ non vaccinés dans les hospitalisations, réa et décès?

Voici un tableau officiel du ministère de la santé espagnol.

La période analysée  : 1 Nov 2021 au 26 Décembre 2021

71.9% des décès sont des vaccinés
68.2% Hospi sont des vaccinés
54.5% Rea sont des vaccinés (Réa=UCI)

D’après ce tableau, on peut dire que les lits Hospitalisation et Réanimation sont occupés majoritairement par des vaccinés.

On retrouve cette répartition dans d’autres pays Européens, par exemple le Portugal, 80% des décès covid9 sont des vaccinés.

Est-ce que le vaccin protège des formes graves?

La répartition est sensiblement la même entre Hospitalisation et décès, on devrait trouver un pourcentage plus faible de décès.  Il faut toujours se méfier lorsque l’on compare deux pourcentages qui font référence à des populations de tailles différentes : par exemple, 50 % de 1 000 personnes, c’est moins que 10 % de 8 000 personnes.

Pour calculer le risque de décès entre un vacciné et un non vacciné :

Commençons par les notations : l’incidence est (I) qui peut faire référence à une hospitalisation, une maladie grave, un décès, etc. (V) est vacciné (NV) non vacciné. On veut connaître la probabilité relative qu’un NV ait l’incidence (I) par rapport à un vacciné. C’est-à-dire P (I / NV) / P (I / V).

Le théorème de Bayes dit : P (I / NV) / P (I / V) = [(P (NV / I) / P (NV)] / [P (V / I) / P (V)]. Le terme P (NV / I) / P (NV) est le nombre de personnes NV avec incidence (I) divisé par le NV total et correspond à la colonne intitulée « TAUX HEBDOMADAIRE de cas non vaccinés » des données du tableau I (colonne tasa semanal). Le terme P(V/I)/P(V) est le nombre de personnes V qui ont l’incidence (I) divisé par le nombre de personnes V et correspond au « taux hebdomadaire de cas vaccinés ». Le taux hebdomadaire NV divisé par le taux hebdomadaire V qui apparaît dans les données du tableau I, nous donne alors  P (I / NV) / P (I / V), c’est-à-dire le nombre de fois plus probable  qu’un Non Vacciné a l’incidence (I) par rapport à un Vacciné.

Ici les courbes des ratios hebdomadaires par tranche d’âge des incidences.

tasa semanal

Mais quels biais y a t-il à faire ces calculs?

1- Le vaccin est sensé avoir une protection de l’infection. Si on suppose une protection de 50%, alors on ne peut pas calculer le taux en prenant toute la population vaccinée, mais seulement la moitié.

2- A chaque vague ce n’est pas toute la population qui est susceptible (voir modèle SIR), mais une partie

Plus une tranche d’âge sera vaccinée et plus le ratio sera important

Le ratio dépend de la période analysée. Voici un exemple de la période récente 2- décembre 2 janvier 2021

D’après ce tableau , le risque d’un non vacciné d’être hospitalisé est d’environ 2 à 4 fois plus élevé par rapport à un vacciné; mais si l’on dit que le vaccin protège à 50% alors le gain diminue de moitié.

L’effectivité du vaccin est loin d’avoir le gain annoncé de 9.  Le gain Hospitalisation et décès reste beaucoup plus modeste et il est difficile à quantifier exactement.

Source : https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_537_COVID-19.pdf

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