Dans l’article précédent nous avons vu un modèle modifié du modèle SIR.http://www.jordimir.com/2020/12/28/covid19-modified-infected-recovered-model/
Dans le modèle SIR les paramètres Beta et Gamma sont constants. Or ils ne le sont pas, en faisant de Beta une variable aléatoire nous pouvons mieux simuler la dynamique du virus. Pour modéliser un confinement nous allons comparer sur ce modèle différentes stratégies. Il suffira de modifier le paramètre Beta en cours de simulation, et voir ainsi l’importance du jour de déclenchement du confinement.
Beta = rand [1,3], puis Beta =rand [1,2]
Si l’on prend des décisions type LockDown au pic des incidences (ici à 123 jours) on n’aplanit pas la courbe, la décision confinement2 est inutile.
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