COVID19 Simulation confinement

Dans l’article précédent nous avons vu un modèle modifié du modèle SIR.http://www.jordimir.com/2020/12/28/covid19-modified-infected-recovered-model/ Dans le modèle SIR les paramètres Beta et Gamma sont constants. Or ils ne le sont pas, en faisant de Beta une variable aléatoire nous pouvons mieux simuler la dynamique du virus. Pour modéliser un confinement nous allons comparer sur ce modèle différentes […]

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COVID19 Modified Infected Recovered Model

Abstract Objective: To compare the effectiveness of different models for COVID-19. Dynamical models SIR Like models and empirical functions models. Proposal of a modified SIR model to avoid lacks found in compartmental models, and obtain results more accurate like emperical models. In SIR models the transmission term β and the recovery rate γ are constant […]

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COVID19 Massive PCR tests a bad idea?

Suppose that you are worried that you might have a rare disease. You decide to get tested, and suppose that the testing methods for this disease are correct 99 percent of the time (in other words, if you have the disease, it shows that you do with 99 percent probability, and if you don’t have […]

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COVID19 Make Your Own SIR Model PHP Code

Medical researchers and mathematicians have developed a series of sophisticated mathematical models to describe the spread of infectious diseases. But even a simple model is useful to predict how long an outbreak of a disease, for example the flu, will last and how many people will be sickened by it. The oldest and most common […]

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COVID19 Rt R0 un mauvais critère

L’outil de base de suivi d’une épidémie est la courbe épidémique. Celle-ci est construite en reportant sur un graphique l’incidence des cas, c’est-à-dire le nombre de nouveaux cas détectés, en fonction du temps, mesuré avec l’unité la plus appropriée (heure, jour, semaine…). Cette courbe fournit une description simple, visuelle, du déroulement de l’épidémie. Elle permet, […]

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