En Catalogne l’université polytechnique de Barcelona a proposé un diagramme de risque pour suivre la pandémie de Sars Cov2.
Pour visualiser l’évolution du virus elle a mis en ligne un diagramme de risque :
En abscisse IA14 le nombre d’incidences sur 14 jours pour 100 000 habitants
En ordonnée ρ7 la vitesse de contagion
Le Risque EPG = IA14 * ρ7
Une zone verte pour EPG=30 et une zone rouge pour EPG=100
Cette visualisation est intéressante pour suivre la pandémie.
Pour mieux prendre en compte la vitesse de contagion et par analogie à une énergie cinétique du virus je préfère calculer un risque EPGJ :
EPGJ = IA14 * ρ7 * ρ7
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