Confinement 2 utile ou pas?

Le 28 octobre 2020, le président de la République a annoncé un reconfinement sur l’ensemble du territoire national à compter du 29 octobre 2020 minuit. Ce confinement est décidé alors que la France fait face à une nouvelle vague épidémique causée par le coronavirus.

Mais ce confinement a été déclenché au pic des incidences, il n’a eu donc aucun effet. Si l’on compare les villes ayant appliquer un couvre feu et celles ne l’ayant pas fait, la tendance à la baise est identique. Si le confinement 1 a eu un impact, le deuxième a été déclenchée trop tard.

Le confinement est une stratégie à utiliser si l’on ne sait pas tester et isoler, mais il faut le faire au bon moment.

Comme expliqué dans les articles précédents, la dynamique du virus fait que celui-ci disparait naturellement. Pourquoi? On ne le sait pas très bien, l’immunité de groupe est encore un vaste sujet. On pourra remarquer que les régions les plus impactées lors de la première phase, ont été moins touchées pendant la seconde.

L’analyse des eaux usées est un bon instrument pour suivre la dynamique du virus. Dès le 17 Octobre on a vu une baisse à Paris. C’est le point d’inflexion dans le modèle de Gompertz.

LCI dans cette vidéo reprend ces faits. Mais il n’y a pas de mystères pour les modélisateurs, il n’y a pas de magie, seulement des mathématiques!

Si nous n’avions pas pris la décision d’un reconfinement, quelle serait la situation aujourd’hui ?
La réponse est simple : la situation aurait été catastrophique, avec plus de 9.000 malades #COVID19 en réanimation à la mi-novembre. pic.twitter.com/MNCu7hmK2K— Olivier Véran (@olivierveran) November 5, 2020

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