Loading...
Latest news
COVID19-Effet de loupe et biais de sélection
COVID19 70-80% des morts sont vaccinés
COVID19 Le confinement est inutile
700 Films Gatuits
COVID19 Simulation confinement
COVID19

Confinement 2 utile ou pas?

Jordi -

Le 28 octobre 2020, le président de la République a annoncé un reconfinement sur l’ensemble du territoire national à compter du 29 octobre 2020 minuit. Ce confinement est décidé alors que la France fait face à une nouvelle vague épidémique causée par le coronavirus.

Mais ce confinement a été déclenché au pic des incidences, il n’a eu donc aucun effet. Si l’on compare les villes ayant appliquer un couvre feu et celles ne l’ayant pas fait, la tendance à la baise est identique. Si le confinement 1 a eu un impact, le deuxième a été déclenchée trop tard.

Le confinement est une stratégie à utiliser si l’on ne sait pas tester et isoler, mais il faut le faire au bon moment.

Comme expliqué dans les articles précédents, la dynamique du virus fait que celui-ci disparait naturellement. Pourquoi? On ne le sait pas très bien, l’immunité de groupe est encore un vaste sujet. On pourra remarquer que les régions les plus impactées lors de la première phase, ont été moins touchées pendant la seconde.

L’analyse des eaux usées est un bon instrument pour suivre la dynamique du virus. Dès le 17 Octobre on a vu une baisse à Paris. C’est le point d’inflexion dans le modèle de Gompertz.

LCI dans cette vidéo reprend ces faits. Mais il n’y a pas de mystères pour les modélisateurs, il n’y a pas de magie, seulement des mathématiques!

Si nous n’avions pas pris la décision d’un reconfinement, quelle serait la situation aujourd’hui ?
La réponse est simple : la situation aurait été catastrophique, avec plus de 9.000 malades #COVID19 en réanimation à la mi-novembre. pic.twitter.com/MNCu7hmK2K— Olivier Véran (@olivierveran) November 5, 2020

https://www.enseignementsup-recherche.gouv.fr/cid155363/surveillance-des-traces-du-virus-sars-cov-2-agent-de-la-covid-19-dans-les-eaux-usees-etat-d-avancement-du-deploiement-du-reseau-sentinelle-a-l-echelle-nationale.html
44 comments
  5. stone island clothing

    I wish to convey my respect for your kindness for folks who really need guidance on that topic. Your very own dedication to getting the message all over appears to be unbelievably useful and has constantly enabled women much like me to arrive at their pursuits. This valuable publication means a whole lot a person like me and especially to my colleagues. Thank you; from everyone of us.

  20. nike off whtie

    I simply wished to say thanks once more. I am not sure what I would have done without these techniques provided by you on this industry. This has been the traumatic scenario in my opinion, however , taking note of the very well-written style you treated it took me to cry for gladness. I’m happier for your work and in addition trust you find out what a powerful job that you are carrying out instructing many people with the aid of your website. I know that you’ve never come across any of us.

  23. yeezy 700

    I would like to convey my gratitude for your kindness for men and women that have the need for help on that issue. Your real dedication to getting the message all over was unbelievably effective and have continuously made women like me to arrive at their targets. Your entire interesting help and advice indicates a great deal a person like me and extremely more to my colleagues. Many thanks; from each one of us.

  24. steph curry shoes

    I want to point out my love for your kindness supporting folks that have the need for help with that situation. Your personal commitment to passing the message all-around came to be wonderfully good and has constantly made associates just like me to reach their endeavors. Your amazing informative guidelines indicates a whole lot to me and much more to my fellow workers. Many thanks; from each one of us.

  25. golden goose sneakers

    I’m also commenting to let you understand of the notable experience my friend’s daughter developed viewing yuor web blog. She even learned such a lot of details, which included what it is like to have an incredible helping heart to have other individuals just learn selected complicated subject matter. You truly surpassed my expected results. Thanks for imparting these essential, healthy, informative as well as easy thoughts on this topic to Evelyn.

  29. kyrie 6 shoes

    I precisely had to appreciate you once again. I’m not certain what I would have made to happen in the absence of the type of secrets provided by you relating to such subject matter. It became a very frightening crisis in my view, but looking at a skilled tactic you dealt with the issue forced me to weep for contentment. Extremely happier for your guidance and as well , hope you know what a powerful job you are providing instructing some other people by way of your webpage. Most probably you have never met all of us.

  30. lebron 18

    I precisely wanted to thank you so much yet again. I am not sure the things that I would’ve tried without the type of creative concepts contributed by you about such a area of interest. It has been a very challenging matter for me personally, however , spending time with a well-written manner you solved it made me to cry over joy. I am happier for this information and then hope you find out what a great job you have been accomplishing teaching the others by way of a web site. More than likely you haven’t come across any of us.

  31. a bathing ape

    Thank you for your whole effort on this site. My daughter delights in managing investigation and it’s really obvious why. We hear all regarding the lively tactic you deliver great steps by means of the blog and even strongly encourage contribution from other ones on that content plus my child is without a doubt being taught a whole lot. Have fun with the remaining portion of the new year. You are always conducting a very good job.

  32. send tokens from metamask

    קמגרה למכירה בהרצליה אנשים באים אליה מהצפון, מהמרכז ומהדרום. לא לחינם נחשבת הרצליה לאחת מהערים המובילות בישראל בתחום הפנאי והבילויים. הרצליה היא עיר תוססת, עם מפגשים אנושיים רבים, metamask token factory example

  33. lebron james shoes

    I wish to get across my passion for your kind-heartedness for people that absolutely need assistance with this important question. Your real commitment to passing the solution throughout became unbelievably informative and have constantly made ladies just like me to reach their objectives. Your own warm and helpful key points denotes much a person like me and even more to my peers. Best wishes; from each one of us.

  36. steph curry shoes

    I precisely needed to thank you very much all over again. I do not know the things that I would’ve accomplished in the absence of the entire secrets contributed by you relating to such area of interest. It was actually an absolute horrifying situation for me, however , being able to see this skilled mode you dealt with the issue forced me to leap for contentment. Now i’m grateful for the service and in addition sincerely hope you find out what a great job you are doing educating many others thru your website. I know that you have never come across all of us.

  37. supreme clothing

    I precisely needed to appreciate you all over again. I’m not certain what I would’ve undertaken without the actual thoughts shared by you concerning my subject. It absolutely was an absolute depressing concern for me personally, however , taking note of a expert avenue you processed the issue took me to cry for contentment. I am happier for the support and in addition wish you find out what an amazing job you are always getting into training people today using your site. Most likely you haven’t come across any of us.

  38. golden goose sneakers

    I wish to get across my respect for your generosity giving support to all those that have the need for help with that idea. Your real dedication to getting the solution all through came to be unbelievably important and has consistently helped individuals like me to arrive at their targets. This warm and helpful key points implies much to me and much more to my office workers. Best wishes; from each one of us.

  39. curry 6

    I would like to show my admiration for your kindness supporting persons who really want help on this particular theme. Your special commitment to passing the solution all around appeared to be remarkably beneficial and have without exception empowered workers like me to arrive at their dreams. Your entire important guide denotes a great deal a person like me and additionally to my fellow workers. Warm regards; from everyone of us.

  41. yeezy supply

    I wish to voice my love for your kindness supporting people who require help with the matter. Your real dedication to getting the solution across had been surprisingly important and have consistently permitted workers like me to achieve their aims. This interesting help and advice entails so much to me and even further to my peers. Warm regards; from everyone of us.

  42. off white

    I want to convey my admiration for your generosity for those people that actually need assistance with your matter. Your real commitment to passing the solution all through ended up being wonderfully practical and have really helped others like me to reach their objectives. The informative advice entails so much to me and a whole lot more to my colleagues. Thanks a ton; from each one of us.

  43. kd shoes

    I am writing to let you understand what a fine encounter my friend’s child found viewing your site. She even learned a lot of issues, which included how it is like to have a great giving style to let others without hassle master a variety of tortuous matters. You really exceeded people’s desires. Thank you for supplying such productive, dependable, revealing and as well as cool thoughts on that topic to Mary.

Laisser un commentaire

Votre adresse e-mail ne sera pas publiée. Les champs obligatoires sont indiqués avec *