Loading...
Latest news
COVID19-Effet de loupe et biais de sélection
COVID19 70-80% des morts sont vaccinés
COVID19 Le confinement est inutile
700 Films Gatuits
COVID19 Simulation confinement
COVID19

Confinement 2 utile ou pas?

Jordi -

Le 28 octobre 2020, le président de la République a annoncé un reconfinement sur l’ensemble du territoire national à compter du 29 octobre 2020 minuit. Ce confinement est décidé alors que la France fait face à une nouvelle vague épidémique causée par le coronavirus.

Mais ce confinement a été déclenché au pic des incidences, il n’a eu donc aucun effet. Si l’on compare les villes ayant appliquer un couvre feu et celles ne l’ayant pas fait, la tendance à la baise est identique. Si le confinement 1 a eu un impact, le deuxième a été déclenchée trop tard.

Le confinement est une stratégie à utiliser si l’on ne sait pas tester et isoler, mais il faut le faire au bon moment.

Comme expliqué dans les articles précédents, la dynamique du virus fait que celui-ci disparait naturellement. Pourquoi? On ne le sait pas très bien, l’immunité de groupe est encore un vaste sujet. On pourra remarquer que les régions les plus impactées lors de la première phase, ont été moins touchées pendant la seconde.

L’analyse des eaux usées est un bon instrument pour suivre la dynamique du virus. Dès le 17 Octobre on a vu une baisse à Paris. C’est le point d’inflexion dans le modèle de Gompertz.

LCI dans cette vidéo reprend ces faits. Mais il n’y a pas de mystères pour les modélisateurs, il n’y a pas de magie, seulement des mathématiques!

Si nous n’avions pas pris la décision d’un reconfinement, quelle serait la situation aujourd’hui ?
La réponse est simple : la situation aurait été catastrophique, avec plus de 9.000 malades #COVID19 en réanimation à la mi-novembre. pic.twitter.com/MNCu7hmK2K— Olivier Véran (@olivierveran) November 5, 2020

https://www.enseignementsup-recherche.gouv.fr/cid155363/surveillance-des-traces-du-virus-sars-cov-2-agent-de-la-covid-19-dans-les-eaux-usees-etat-d-avancement-du-deploiement-du-reseau-sentinelle-a-l-echelle-nationale.html
84 comments
  6. off white outlet

    I would like to voice my affection for your generosity giving support to individuals who absolutely need help with this question. Your very own dedication to passing the solution all over had become extraordinarily functional and has empowered ladies much like me to reach their goals. Your warm and helpful instruction implies this much to me and additionally to my office workers. Regards; from each one of us.

  13. russell westbrook shoes

    I definitely wanted to make a small word to be able to say thanks to you for those wonderful secrets you are giving here. My time intensive internet investigation has at the end of the day been compensated with incredibly good knowledge to share with my contacts. I would declare that most of us visitors are extremely fortunate to live in a great website with so many marvellous people with interesting methods. I feel rather fortunate to have encountered your webpage and look forward to some more awesome minutes reading here. Thanks a lot again for everything.

  16. lebron 18

    Thanks for your own labor on this site. Gloria take interest in engaging in internet research and it is obvious why. All of us know all regarding the dynamic means you present reliable secrets via the blog and therefore recommend response from others on this area of interest then my princess is really learning a whole lot. Enjoy the rest of the year. You’re conducting a superb job.

  17. paul george shoes

    I wanted to put you one little remark to be able to thank you yet again with your extraordinary ideas you’ve contributed on this site. It is simply shockingly open-handed of people like you to allow publicly precisely what a lot of folks would have supplied for an e-book to help make some money for themselves, specifically now that you might have done it in the event you desired. Those advice also worked to be a easy way to fully grasp someone else have a similar dream just like my very own to understand a whole lot more related to this problem. Certainly there are a lot more pleasurable sessions up front for those who scan through your site.

  18. kawhi leonard shoes

    I simply needed to thank you very much yet again. I do not know the things I would have done in the absence of those techniques shown by you concerning that industry. It actually was an absolute frightful condition for me, however , being able to see your professional form you processed the issue made me to jump for contentment. Now i’m grateful for your service and thus wish you comprehend what a powerful job you’re putting in educating people today by way of your website. I am sure you haven’t encountered any of us.

  21. yeezy wave runner 700

    I wish to show my love for your kind-heartedness giving support to those who should have help with the area of interest. Your special dedication to getting the solution up and down became rather helpful and have in most cases allowed ladies much like me to achieve their objectives. Your important tutorial signifies a lot a person like me and extremely more to my office colleagues. Many thanks; from all of us.

  25. supreme

    I needed to put you that very little note in order to thank you so much yet again just for the great tips you’ve contributed in this article. It was certainly generous with you to give extensively just what most people would have made available as an ebook to help with making some cash for themselves, especially given that you might have done it in the event you considered necessary. The things as well served to become fantastic way to fully grasp other people have the identical eagerness just as mine to find out whole lot more with reference to this issue. I am sure there are a lot more pleasurable opportunities ahead for people who examine your site.

  27. kyrie 4

    I wanted to write you this little remark just to thank you very much yet again with the great thoughts you have documented at this time. This has been quite tremendously open-handed of people like you to supply openly all a lot of people might have supplied as an electronic book to help with making some dough for their own end, specifically since you might have done it in the event you decided. These pointers as well worked as a great way to fully grasp other people have a similar zeal similar to mine to figure out a little more related to this matter. I think there are millions of more fun periods in the future for those who check out your site.

  31. kyrie 5

    I am glad for writing to let you understand of the extraordinary experience my friend’s child obtained reading through yuor web blog. She discovered so many issues, including how it is like to have a wonderful teaching mindset to have many more completely understand specified problematic things. You undoubtedly exceeded visitors’ desires. Thank you for supplying those informative, trusted, edifying and as well as easy guidance on this topic to Emily.

Laisser un commentaire

Votre adresse e-mail ne sera pas publiée. Les champs obligatoires sont indiqués avec *