Loading...
Latest news
COVID19-Effet de loupe et biais de sélection
COVID19 70-80% des morts sont vaccinés
COVID19 Le confinement est inutile
700 Films Gatuits
COVID19 Simulation confinement
COVID19

COVID19 Modélisation et dissimulation

Jordi -

La phase 1 du Covid19 en France est-elle modélisable? Quelle est l’équation qui simule cette pandémie, est-ce une exponentielle ou une fonction de Gompertz?

Il y a 200 ans Gompertz, nous a donné l’équation qui permet de modéliser les épidémies de type Covid19.

Voici un graphique, sur le cumul des décès en France depuis le 15 Février. Les points sont les données de
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

En bleu la courbe de l’équation de Gompertz:

30029*exp(-exp(-0.07(x-55)))

Pour info un graphique comparant la réalité avec la modélisation à 400 000 morts

L’immunité de groupe est atteinte lorsque le pourcentage de la population est égal à 1 – 1/R0

R0 taux de reproduction, on l’a estimé à environ 3, ce qui donne une immunité lorsque 66% de la population a été infectée.
le taux de mortalité par infection est estimé à 0,3-1,3%

Donc une règle de 3 donne des estimations de 400 000 décès pour la France. Ce calcul basique oublie que l’immunité de groupe est mal connu. Une modélisation de type Gompertz permet de mieux appréhender la dynamique de la pandémie.

190 comments
  2. golden goose

    I want to express my love for your kind-heartedness giving support to persons who should have help on this particular study. Your real commitment to getting the message along became especially important and has continually permitted individuals just like me to attain their desired goals. Your interesting guideline means a lot to me and additionally to my peers. Thanks a lot; from everyone of us.

  3. supreme shirt

    I precisely needed to appreciate you again. I am not sure what I might have taken care of in the absence of the actual tactics shared by you concerning that problem. It previously was a very terrifying issue for me personally, nevertheless spending time with the professional style you solved that made me to leap for joy. I will be happier for this help and as well , expect you are aware of an amazing job you’re providing training people through your site. I know that you have never come across any of us.

  6. bape clothing

    I intended to draft you this little bit of word so as to thank you very much as before for these pretty guidelines you have contributed at this time. This has been simply tremendously generous of people like you to supply easily exactly what most people would have sold for an e-book to make some dough for their own end, principally given that you might well have done it if you ever considered necessary. The good ideas as well acted like the fantastic way to be sure that most people have similar dream just like my very own to see a great deal more around this problem. I’m sure there are many more pleasant instances in the future for individuals that examine your blog.

  9. golden goose

    Thanks so much for providing individuals with an extraordinarily spectacular opportunity to check tips from here. It’s usually very enjoyable and full of a great time for me personally and my office friends to search your website minimum three times weekly to learn the newest issues you have. Not to mention, we are actually happy with your extraordinary secrets served by you. Some 3 facts on this page are completely the most impressive we have ever had.

  15. cialis order rprh

    Women constraint at worst wait a occasional seconds before the alternative up, with varied despite achieving multiple orgasms in undivided session. In contrast, the spear refractory days varies post ejaculation, with some men in position after a handful minutes and some men needing a number of hours to days. Source: cialis ingredients

  21. off white t shirt

    I wish to show my appreciation for your kind-heartedness in support of all those that have the need for assistance with this one content. Your special dedication to passing the solution up and down became astonishingly advantageous and have consistently made associates just like me to get to their dreams. The informative help and advice implies so much to me and far more to my mates. Warm regards; from everyone of us.

  22. kobe

    I want to express some appreciation to you just for bailing me out of this type of predicament. As a result of surfing around throughout the internet and coming across tricks which were not beneficial, I assumed my life was gone. Existing minus the answers to the problems you have solved by means of the article is a serious case, as well as those that could have negatively damaged my career if I hadn’t noticed the blog. Your good expertise and kindness in dealing with every aspect was very useful. I don’t know what I would have done if I hadn’t come upon such a subject like this. I can at this time look ahead to my future. Thanks very much for this expert and amazing guide. I won’t be reluctant to recommend the sites to anybody who should receive guidance about this issue.

  26. goyard handbag

    I wish to express my respect for your kindness supporting those people who really need help with your question. Your very own commitment to getting the solution along appeared to be surprisingly good and have usually enabled individuals much like me to achieve their ambitions. This informative guide signifies so much to me and far more to my fellow workers. Regards; from each one of us.

  31. steph curry shoes

    I am also writing to make you know what a impressive encounter my friend’s child had viewing yuor web blog. She picked up numerous pieces, which included how it is like to possess a marvelous coaching style to let the rest very easily understand chosen extremely tough subject areas. You undoubtedly surpassed people’s desires. Thanks for presenting such interesting, trusted, educational as well as cool thoughts on your topic to Kate.

  35. golden goose sneakers

    I must point out my passion for your kindness giving support to men and women who should have help on your situation. Your real commitment to getting the solution all over was amazingly beneficial and has always permitted regular people like me to get to their pursuits. Your amazing insightful instruction entails much to me and even more to my peers. Many thanks; from each one of us.

Laisser un commentaire

Votre adresse e-mail ne sera pas publiée.