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COVID19

COVID19 Modélisation et dissimulation

La phase 1 du Covid19 en France est-elle modélisable? Quelle est l’équation qui simule cette pandémie, est-ce une exponentielle ou une fonction de Gompertz?

Il y a 200 ans Gompertz, nous a donné l’équation qui permet de modéliser les épidémies de type Covid19.

Voici un graphique, sur le cumul des décès en France depuis le 15 Février. Les points sont les données de
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

En bleu la courbe de l’équation de Gompertz:

30029*exp(-exp(-0.07(x-55)))

Pour info un graphique comparant la réalité avec la modélisation à 400 000 morts

L’immunité de groupe est atteinte lorsque le pourcentage de la population est égal à 1 – 1/R0

R0 taux de reproduction, on l’a estimé à environ 3, ce qui donne une immunité lorsque 66% de la population a été infectée.
le taux de mortalité par infection est estimé à 0,3-1,3%

Donc une règle de 3 donne des estimations de 400 000 décès pour la France. Ce calcul basique oublie que l’immunité de groupe est mal connu. Une modélisation de type Gompertz permet de mieux appréhender la dynamique de la pandémie.

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