Présidentielles Abstention différenciée attention à la théorie

Selon Serge Galam, physicien et directeur de recherche au CNRS, « l’abstention différenciée » pourrait faire triompher la candidate frontiste, le 7 mai prochain.

« Si 30% des électeurs qui ont annoncé voter contre Marine Le Pen ne le font pas, elle gagnera  » Serge Galam – Physicien et chercheur au CNRS

« Grâce à cette abstention différenciée, elle passerait de 44% d’intentions de vote à 50,25% des suffrages exprimés. Et ce, dans l’hypothèse où 10% seulement de ses propres électeurs s’abstiennent », explique celui qui est également directeur de recherche au CNRS.

ur ce graphique on peut voir qu’avec 42% d’intentions de votes, et si 35% des gens qui ont dit voter pour le candidat B s’abstiennent, alors A l’emporte.

Mais que représentent, en nombre de voix, ces 35% supplémentaires d’abstention?

En reprenant l’article de Patrick Loiseleur https://blogs.mediapart.fr/patrickloiseleur/blog/290417/pourquoi-et-comment-marine-le-pen-va-gagner
un tableau donnant les nombres de voix par candidat du premier tour. Le second tour reprend donc les sondages actuels soit 58,6% pour Macron contre 41,4% pour MLP

Soit en nombre de voix 16 721 829 pour Macron et 11 812 083 pour MLP. Pour que Macron perde il faut que (16721829-11812083)-1= 4 909 745 électeurs potentiels de Macron préfèrent aller « à la pêche »
Cette perte de votants pour Macron représente environ 30% d’abstentionistes supplémentaires, qui au lieu de voter pour lui ne le font pas à la dernière minute. On retrouve donc la courbe de Galam et sa théorie d’abstention différenciée.

Est ce possible?

– Le nombre total de votants étant de 46 632 849, il faudrait un taux de participation en chute de 10,52% soit 50,65%
Mais d’où viendraient ces abstentionistes, la seule hypothèse possible ce sont les électeurs du premier tour de Mélenchon, Fillon, Hamon, NDA
En faisant une répartion équitable 4909745/4 = 1 227 436
– Soit pour les électeurs de Fillon au 1er tour un taux d’abstention de 45,01% au lieu de 28%
Pour Mélenchon 62,38% au lieu de 45%
Pour Hamon 85,56% au lieu de 32%
Pour NDA 100% au lieu de 32%

Si théoriquement l’abstention différenciée peut changer un résultat au dernier moment, elle reste dans ce cas précis peu envisageable.
Au lecteur à apprécier si MLP peut devenir la prochaine Présidente de la République grâce à une abstention différenciée qui n’apparaît pas être forcément excessive, d’après les mots de M. Galam

Ref : Galam https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.04643.pdf

  1. Willis Lacz

    I simply needed to thank you very much all over again. I’m not certain what I would have followed in the absence of the entire advice provided by you on such a theme. It previously was the fearsome circumstance in my position, nevertheless coming across the professional form you treated it took me to cry with fulfillment. I’m grateful for this help as well as believe you realize what a great job that you’re providing teaching many others through a site. I am sure you haven’t come across any of us.

  2. Adeline Lundblad

    Rattling fantastic information can be found on web site. « An executive is a person who always decides sometimes he decides correctly, but he always decides. » by John H. Patterson.

  3. Dion Halcott

    You are my aspiration , I have few web logs and often run out from to post .I think this web site contains some really fantastic information for everyone. « I prefer the wicked rather than the foolish. The wicked sometimes rest. » by Alexandre Dumas.

  4. Valentine Chemin

    You are my intake , I have few blogs and sometimes run out from to brand.I think this web site has some rattling excellent information for everyone. « Drunkenness is temporary suicide. » by Bertrand Russell.

  5. Lyle Farrelly

    I precisely needed to say thanks yet again. I’m not certain what I could possibly have accomplished without these strategies shown by you regarding such a industry. It was the troublesome dilemma in my position, but coming across a skilled manner you resolved that forced me to leap over delight. I am just happy for the help as well as trust you recognize what a great job your are undertaking educating other individuals thru your website. I am sure you’ve never got to know any of us.

  6. kyrie shoes

    I would like to convey my passion for your kindness supporting persons who absolutely need assistance with in this study. Your personal dedication to getting the solution all through appears to be wonderfully beneficial and have continually helped most people much like me to realize their pursuits. Your amazing insightful suggestions means a whole lot to me and additionally to my colleagues. Thanks a lot; from all of us.

  7. bape shoes

    I simply wished to say thanks yet again. I do not know what I could possibly have worked on without the entire aspects contributed by you relating to my industry. It actually was a hard issue in my position, but finding out a specialised manner you managed the issue forced me to leap for gladness. Now i’m grateful for this advice and in addition pray you realize what a great job that you are doing teaching most people with the aid of a blog. I am certain you haven’t met any of us.

  8. golden goose shoes

    I must express my gratitude for your kind-heartedness giving support to people who must have guidance on the topic. Your very own commitment to passing the solution around ended up being particularly practical and has specifically helped women much like me to achieve their goals. This valuable advice indicates a lot a person like me and much more to my mates. Regards; from each one of us.

  9. Leonora Dang

    Hello, you used to write wonderful, but the last several posts have been kinda boring… I miss your great writings. Past several posts are just a bit out of track! come on!

  10. Roland Basile

    I like this post, enjoyed this one thank you for putting up. « When you make a world tolerable for yourself, you make a world tolerable for others. » by Anais Nin.

  11. fear of god

    I would like to convey my passion for your generosity for people who really want help on this particular concept. Your special commitment to getting the message along ended up being remarkably good and has in every case permitted some individuals much like me to get to their targets. Your entire warm and helpful useful information implies this much to me and even more to my office colleagues. Best wishes; from everyone of us.

  12. Kristina Braly

    Very great info can be found on web blog . « Prayer is the wing wherewith the soul flies to heaven, and meditation the eye wherewith we see God. » by Ambrose of Milan.

  13. goyard handbag

    My spouse and i ended up being lucky that Louis could complete his preliminary research through the entire ideas he discovered out of your blog. It is now and again perplexing to simply find yourself freely giving tips and hints which often men and women might have been trying to sell. We recognize we’ve got the writer to be grateful to for that. Those illustrations you have made, the easy web site navigation, the relationships you will help to create – it is many spectacular, and it’s really making our son in addition to us know that that idea is cool, and that is exceedingly pressing. Thank you for the whole thing!

  14. Linwood Riscen

    I have to convey my respect for your kindness giving support to men and women who must have help on this important situation. Your real dedication to getting the solution around appears to be certainly productive and have always permitted guys and women much like me to attain their dreams. Your new useful instruction indicates so much to me and still more to my colleagues. With thanks; from all of us.

  15. curry 8

    I happen to be commenting to let you understand what a fabulous experience my wife’s girl undergone visiting the blog. She figured out numerous things, most notably what it’s like to possess an ideal helping mindset to get a number of people with ease gain knowledge of various complex subject matter. You actually exceeded people’s expectations. Thank you for offering such powerful, trusted, explanatory and as well as easy guidance on this topic to Mary.

  16. Les Nenni

    Utterly pent content, appreciate it for entropy. « You can do very little with faith, but you can do nothing without it. » by Samuel Butler.

Laisser un commentaire

Votre adresse e-mail ne sera pas publiée.