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Présidentielles Abstention différenciée attention à la théorie

Selon Serge Galam, physicien et directeur de recherche au CNRS, « l’abstention différenciée » pourrait faire triompher la candidate frontiste, le 7 mai prochain.

« Si 30% des électeurs qui ont annoncé voter contre Marine Le Pen ne le font pas, elle gagnera  » Serge Galam – Physicien et chercheur au CNRS

« Grâce à cette abstention différenciée, elle passerait de 44% d’intentions de vote à 50,25% des suffrages exprimés. Et ce, dans l’hypothèse où 10% seulement de ses propres électeurs s’abstiennent », explique celui qui est également directeur de recherche au CNRS.

ur ce graphique on peut voir qu’avec 42% d’intentions de votes, et si 35% des gens qui ont dit voter pour le candidat B s’abstiennent, alors A l’emporte.

Mais que représentent, en nombre de voix, ces 35% supplémentaires d’abstention?

En reprenant l’article de Patrick Loiseleur https://blogs.mediapart.fr/patrickloiseleur/blog/290417/pourquoi-et-comment-marine-le-pen-va-gagner
un tableau donnant les nombres de voix par candidat du premier tour. Le second tour reprend donc les sondages actuels soit 58,6% pour Macron contre 41,4% pour MLP

Soit en nombre de voix 16 721 829 pour Macron et 11 812 083 pour MLP. Pour que Macron perde il faut que (16721829-11812083)-1= 4 909 745 électeurs potentiels de Macron préfèrent aller « à la pêche »
Cette perte de votants pour Macron représente environ 30% d’abstentionistes supplémentaires, qui au lieu de voter pour lui ne le font pas à la dernière minute. On retrouve donc la courbe de Galam et sa théorie d’abstention différenciée.

Est ce possible?

– Le nombre total de votants étant de 46 632 849, il faudrait un taux de participation en chute de 10,52% soit 50,65%
Mais d’où viendraient ces abstentionistes, la seule hypothèse possible ce sont les électeurs du premier tour de Mélenchon, Fillon, Hamon, NDA
En faisant une répartion équitable 4909745/4 = 1 227 436
– Soit pour les électeurs de Fillon au 1er tour un taux d’abstention de 45,01% au lieu de 28%
Pour Mélenchon 62,38% au lieu de 45%
Pour Hamon 85,56% au lieu de 32%
Pour NDA 100% au lieu de 32%

Si théoriquement l’abstention différenciée peut changer un résultat au dernier moment, elle reste dans ce cas précis peu envisageable.
Au lecteur à apprécier si MLP peut devenir la prochaine Présidente de la République grâce à une abstention différenciée qui n’apparaît pas être forcément excessive, d’après les mots de M. Galam

Ref : Galam https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.04643.pdf

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